The Brewers Earned the No. 1 Seed. Their Reward Is a Dangerous Padres Team.
The Milwaukee Brewers did everything they could do during the regular season.
They won a franchise-record 103 games.
They finished with the best record in baseball.
They earned a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
Their reward?
One of the hottest teams in baseball.
The San Diego Padres swept the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round and will come to Milwaukee for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday night.
If Brewers fans were hoping the No. 1 seed would provide an easy path into the National League Championship Series, this isn’t it.
These Aren’t the Same Padres Milwaukee Saw Early in the Season
San Diego didn’t simply sneak into October.
The Padres finished the regular season 18–6 in September. Milwaukee went 18–6 during that same stretch.
Now the two hottest teams in baseball are meeting in a best-of-five series.
That’s enough to make this matchup interesting before even considering what happened when they played each other.
San Diego won four of six against Milwaukee during the regular season, including a three-game sweep in August.
The Brewers had opportunities in that series. They blew leads in two of the three games and went just 3-for-28 with runners in scoring position.
That doesn’t mean the Padres automatically have Milwaukee’s number.
But it should remove any idea that the Brewers can simply show up as the No. 1 seed and expect to advance.
San Diego’s Bullpen Could Make This a Very Short Game
Perhaps the most concerning part of this matchup is what happens if San Diego has a lead late.
The Padres just showed against Chicago how difficult their bullpen can be in October.
In the Wild Card clincher, San Diego’s relievers covered 5 2/3 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits.
Mason Miller anchors the back end, with Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and others giving San Diego plenty of options before him.
That puts even more pressure on Milwaukee’s offense to capitalize when opportunities appear.
The Brewers spent all season proving they don’t need to hit home runs to score.
Milwaukee finished second in baseball in runs despite ranking near the bottom of MLB in home runs. They led baseball in batting average and on-base percentage while using speed, patience, and situational hitting to manufacture offense.
That style won 103 games.
Now we find out how well it translates to October against one of the deepest bullpens in the postseason.
Milwaukee Has a Pretty Good Answer of Its Own
The Padres aren’t the only team with pitching capable of taking over this series.
Milwaukee gets to hand the ball to Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1.
All he did this season was finish with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP, and a .157 opponent batting average.
He led Major League Baseball in all four categories.
That’s the kind of pitcher you want starting Game 1 of a postseason series.
And if Milwaukee can get a lead into the later innings, Pat Murphy has his own collection of arms available.
Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and the rest of the Brewers bullpen give Milwaukee the ability to shorten games too.
This series could ultimately come down to which team can grab a lead first and hand the game over to its bullpen.
The Bye Has to Become an Advantage
This is where earning the No. 1 seed needs to matter.
San Diego just played two playoff games.
Milwaukee has been able to rest, line up its pitching, and prepare specifically for whoever emerged from the Wild Card round.
And Games 1 and 2 are at American Family Field.
The Brewers earned those advantages over 162 games.
Now they have to use them.
There will always be debate about whether several days off helps or hurts a team entering the Division Series. If Milwaukee comes out flat, we’ll hear plenty about the bye.
But the Brewers can’t control that conversation.
They can control what happens Saturday night.
This Is What October Is Supposed to Feel Like
There isn’t supposed to be an easy opponent at this point.
Milwaukee won 103 games because it consistently found ways to win regardless of the matchup.
San Diego is dangerous.
The Padres are hot.
They’ve already beaten Milwaukee four times this season.
And they’re coming into this series with the confidence that comes from sweeping their first postseason opponent.
Good.
If this Brewers team really is capable of doing something Milwaukee hasn’t done since 1982, eventually it was going to have to beat teams like this.
The Brewers spent six months earning the No. 1 seed.
Now comes the part that actually matters.
Proving they deserved it.